A frightening Covid situation avoided in Sydney thanks to the lockdown has been laid bare in a harrowing new report.
While the Covid-19 crisis in Sydney continues to escalate a startling new report has revealed how things could have been far worse.
The Burnet Institute released a report on Tuesday night which painted a grim picture for the state had harsh measures not been implemented in areas of concern.
If nothing had been done, including the deployment of thousands of additional Pfizer doses to hotspot areas, there would have been at least 589,817 cases and 5808 deaths between June and December this year.
“The restrictions combined with the original vaccine rollout have averted an estimated 488,020 infections and 4830 deaths,” the report stated.
“The additional 530,000 Pfizer doses are estimated to have averted an additional 24,267 diagnoses and 254 deaths.”
However, the situation is still predicted to get worse in the LGAs of concern, with the seven-day average likely to peak from September 13 to 20 at between 1129 and 1967 daily cases.
The seven-day average will also peak during the same period across the rest of Greater Sydney, with the numbers actually expected to be higher at between 1219 and 2046 daily cases.
“Under current restrictions and projected vaccination numbers, diagnoses and hospitalisations in Sydney will continue increasing for several weeks before reaching a peak and declining once sufficient vaccine-acquired immunity is achieved,” the report stated.
The report did not provide a forecast for the entire state.
NSW recorded 1220 new cases on Tuesday with 422 of those from western Sydney and 392 from southwest Sydney, which remained the major areas of concern.
There had been 139 Covid deaths and 30,456 cases in NSW since June 16, when the latest outbreak began.
Last month, millions of residents in 12 local government areas of concern were hit with even tougher restrictions in response to spiralling case numbers in the city’s west and southwest.
This included a 9pm to 5am curfew Bayside, Blacktown, Burwood, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Fairfield, Georges River, Liverpool, Parramatta, Strathfield, and some suburbs of Penrith.
While case numbers remain high, there has been a glimmer of hope.
About 74 per cent of NSW residents have received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine with the state expected to reach the magical 70 per cent double dose target on October 19, according to Covid Live.
The 80 per cent target should be achieved by early November.
Earlier on Tuesday, eligible people in NSW who hadn’t yet received their coronavirus vaccine were being warned not to be “left behind” as the state raced towards reopening.
Areas in Sydney where vaccinate rates are highest include Ku-ring-gai with more than 59 per cent of residents fully vaccinated followed by Woollahra with more than 56 per cent doubled jabbed.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian hinted that pubs and other hospitality venues could reopen by mid-October to those who were fully vaccinated.
“In some of our hotspot local government areas, the first dose average is just amazing,” Ms Berejiklian said.
“Blacktown is over 85 per cent first dose, Camden is over 82 per cent, Parramatta is over 81 per cent, Canterbury-Bankstown is over 76 per cent and Dubbo is over 77 per cent.
“We’re really pleased with those results and we ask people to keep coming forward and of course our message is, don’t be left behind.”
Originally published as Harrowing report paints grim prediction of Sydney’s Covid crisis without lockdown